Over 50 years ago Pierre Teilhard de Chardin published a seminal work, The Phenomenon of Man, in which he theorized that for mankind to survive it was necessary for the species to evolve into a global human consciousness called the noosphere.
Now comes James Surowiecki with his The Wisdom of Crowds, subtitled “Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economics, Societies, and Nations.” In an age that glorifies and rewards individual achievement, this book causes us to rethink conventional wisdom about individual versus group performance.
Some of his observations and conclusions are easier to accept than others. I couldn’t help wondering, for instance, how some of our crazy election results demonstrate any wisdom at all, collective or otherwise. And he explains away market bubbles and other distortions as the result of a herd mentality.
Fair enough. He is careful to define crowds with the potential for wisdom as having four characteristics: diversity, independence, decentralization and aggregation. In other words, it is not large groups of people working as a conscious collective, but large groups of people that are diverse and independent working as individuals. Wisdom is the result of the aggregation of their individual efforts.
On the face of it this can be hard to achieve but two examples provide a compelling picture of what can happen. Scientific advancement is the product of individual effort spread among many scientists working on problems that are most interesting to each of them as individuals. Results are aggregated through scientific publications. Surowiecki uses the case of the international search for the SARS virus to demonstrate how scientists working in a diverse, independent, decentralized environment were able to collectively crack the code and identify the virus.
A more popular, and controversial, example of collective wisdom is Wikipedia, an online encyclopedia created by volunteers, many of whom are not specialists in the field they are writing about. Amazingly, a recent survey by the science journal Nature found that science entries “are not markedly less accurate” than those found in the Encyclopedia Britannica.
In the same vein, an organization called Shared Insights is teaming with Wharton, MIT, and Pearson Publishing to create a “network book” tentatively titled We Are Smarter Than Me. Place your bets and stay tuned.
Image: Ha Long Bay, Viet Nam. Taken May 2004.